When you retire matters.
Enter a retirement balance and a planned annual withdrawal. This test shows how the same withdrawal plan can look very different depending on when a hard market arrives.
Set your illustration inputs
For people approaching or in retirement who want to see why the order of returns can matter once withdrawals begin. Figures are hypothetical — not a projection of any individual’s results. Withdrawals are taken at the beginning of each year, before that year’s return is applied.
Same starting balance for both paths.
Same first-year withdrawal for both paths.
When on, withdrawals grow 3% per year — closer to how a real income stream behaves.
Two retirees. Two decades.
Same balance. Same withdrawal. Different historical decade. One person retires in January 2000 and lives S&P 500 total returns from 2000–2009. The other retires in January 2013 and lives 2013–2022. Index returns are unmanaged, do not reflect fees or taxes, and cannot be invested in directly.
Swipe sideways to see all 10 years.
A decade that opened with a crash
A decade that closed with one
The 2013 retiree finishes ahead after 10 years — same starting balance, same withdrawal, same index, different decade.
Year-by-year tables
Swipe sideways to see every column.
| Year | Return | Withdrawal | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | -9.1% | $50,000 | $863,550 |
| 2001 | -11.9% | $50,000 | $716,819 |
| 2002 | -22.1% | $50,000 | $519,452 |
| 2003 | 28.7% | $50,000 | $604,091 |
| 2004 | 10.9% | $50,000 | $614,376 |
| 2005 | 4.9% | $50,000 | $592,087 |
| 2006 | 15.8% | $50,000 | $627,682 |
| 2007 | 5.5% | $50,000 | $609,397 |
| 2008 | -37.0% | $50,000 | $352,420 |
| 2009 | 26.5% | $50,000 | $382,440 |
| Year | Return | Withdrawal | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 32.4% | $50,000 | $1,257,705 |
| 2014 | 13.7% | $50,000 | $1,373,040 |
| 2015 | 1.4% | $50,000 | $1,341,298 |
| 2016 | 12.0% | $50,000 | $1,445,737 |
| 2017 | 21.8% | $50,000 | $1,700,426 |
| 2018 | -4.4% | $50,000 | $1,578,138 |
| 2019 | 31.5% | $50,000 | $2,009,348 |
| 2020 | 18.4% | $50,000 | $2,319,868 |
| 2021 | 28.7% | $50,000 | $2,921,548 |
| 2022 | -18.1% | $50,000 | $2,351,510 |
Same returns. Same average. Different outcome.
Those decades had different returns, so a fair question is whether that was really sequence risk or just the luck of which decade someone retired into. Here is a controlled example: the same 10 returns, a 7.0% arithmetic mean, played two ways.
Swipe sideways to see all 10 years.
The same 10 returns, hard years at the start
The same 10 returns, hard years at the end
Same 10 returns. Same 7.0% average. The gap is order alone.
Year-by-year tables
Swipe sideways to see every column.
| Year | Return | Withdrawal | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | -20.0% | $50,000 | $760,000 |
| Year 2 | -12.0% | $50,000 | $624,800 |
| Year 3 | -8.0% | $50,000 | $528,816 |
| Year 4 | 0.0% | $50,000 | $478,816 |
| Year 5 | 8.0% | $50,000 | $463,121 |
| Year 6 | 12.0% | $50,000 | $462,696 |
| Year 7 | 15.0% | $50,000 | $474,600 |
| Year 8 | 20.0% | $50,000 | $509,520 |
| Year 9 | 25.0% | $50,000 | $574,400 |
| Year 10 | 30.0% | $50,000 | $681,720 |
| Year | Return | Withdrawal | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 30.0% | $50,000 | $1,235,000 |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | $50,000 | $1,481,250 |
| Year 3 | 20.0% | $50,000 | $1,717,500 |
| Year 4 | 15.0% | $50,000 | $1,917,625 |
| Year 5 | 12.0% | $50,000 | $2,091,740 |
| Year 6 | 8.0% | $50,000 | $2,205,079 |
| Year 7 | 0.0% | $50,000 | $2,155,079 |
| Year 8 | -8.0% | $50,000 | $1,936,673 |
| Year 9 | -12.0% | $50,000 | $1,660,272 |
| Year 10 | -20.0% | $50,000 | $1,288,218 |
Why a drop in retirement is different.
While you are still working and adding money, time can repair a down market. In retirement, withdrawals lock the loss in. A hard market at the start sells shares at the worst prices and leaves fewer of them for the recovery. A hard market at the end of a long run lands on a portfolio that has already grown — same percentage, much smaller share of the journey.
You cannot control the market. You can control the structure your plan brings to it — including an income floor that does not depend entirely on selling shares in a down year.
Hypothetical illustration. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Part I uses S&P 500 calendar-year total returns for 2000–2009 and 2013–2022. Part II uses a constructed 10-year return set shown in two orders to isolate sequence-of-returns risk. Both sections are educational, with no fees, taxes, or investment product represented. Withdrawals are held flat or grown 3% per year, depending on your selection. This is not personalized advice, a recommendation, or a projection. Use of this calculator does not create an advisory relationship.
This test shows the risk. A review builds the plan.
We'll walk through your balance, your withdrawal plan, and the income structure underneath — so a bad market does not automatically force bad withdrawals.
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